The Stockdale Paradox – Blind Optimism is Not the Answer
Ten years ago health problems put me in the hospital, in rather dire straits. One of the key things that got me through that hard time was Admiral Stockdale’s story that I had read in Jim Collin’s classic book Good to Great.
Vice Admiral James Stockdale was the highest-ranking naval officer held as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. He spent seven years as a prisoner of war, most of them in the Hỏa Lò Prison (Hanoi Hilton), where he endured and survived unspeakable conditions. He was tortured more than 20 times. He also was subjected to “special” treatment as part of the “Alcatraz Gang” of 11 U.S. prisoners who were singled out for their particular resistance to their captors.
In Good to Great, Stockdale talks about his coping strategy during his period in the Vietnamese POW camp. I never lost faith in the end of the story, I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.
When Collins asked who didn’t make it out of Vietnam, Stockdale replied:
Oh, that’s easy, the optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.
Stockdale then added:
This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.
Blind optimism is not the answer to surviving tough situations. Confronting the reality of the situation, seeking the support needed and taking the steps necessary to survive another day can often lead to a better outcome.